Upon studying Canada’s GDP, retail sales, inflation, employment rates and private investment, the Canadian Federation of Independant Business is forecasting positive growth for quarters 1 and 2 of 2024.

Director of Economics Andreea Bourgeois says the country’s GDP forecast came in even stronger than what was expected, as business optimism is fairly down.

Bourgeois says immigration has boosted employment growth, inflation is on its way down, and the job vacancy rate is diminishing, which are all very promising, and CFIB predicts that Canada’s economy will grow to 0.9% in the second quarter, up from 0.8% in Q1.

However, there is one factor that isn’t as promising.

“Since about mid2023, we are seeing more and more concern with the lack of demand. Currently we have about 50 per cent of businesses, so one in two, saying they have an insufficient demand.

Bourgeois attributes this to the fact that consumers have limited income at their disposal, and wage increases are trailing behind price increases.

She says private investment is also quite sluggish.

“The investment numbers have been weak for quite some time after the pandemic. Not surprising, right? The costs were what they were. lack of inputs, uncertainty, and then boom, high interest rates. Investment is an area where we’re not seeing positive movement.”