The number of Canadian restaurant closures is expected to outpace new openings by over 4000 in 2026.

That’s from Sylvain Charlebois, a professor and researcher of food distribution and policy at Dalhousie University. He says consumer habits, input costs, and temporary worker cutbacks are all working against the restaurant sector.

“The consumer is more careful with his or her money; will go to the grocery store or order in much more often; and will avoid the expensive bottle of wine, the appetizers, and the desserts, things that are high margin.”

He says because franchise operators have more financial support, independent restaurants are more likely to be the ones shutting their doors.

“Honestly, that’s just sad because over the last several decades, Canadians have had access to new cuisine, new flavours, new tastes without a passport due to these innovative restaurant operators, and a lot of them are independents.”

He adds that food delivery apps and tip prompting on card machines are both acting as deterrents from going out to eat.

“I never felt that the industry wanted to tackle that issue head on. It became an issue. A lot of people became uncomfortable with tip prompting.”

In order to weather the storm, he says restaurants will need to entice people to leave their homes and eat out more. He also suggests Canada take a permanent GST holiday.